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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest upset.

However this year's field is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still